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October 31, 2005

Lost Halloween

From left to right:

Kevin as Charlie (sporting a DriveShaft concert shirt).
Elizabeth as Claire (holding "Turnip Head")
Bill as Desmond (whose been down the hatch too long), and
Jan as Danielle (trying to snatch Claire's baby).

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Someone did manage to snatch the baby for an hour or two. He reappeared, but Claire's jar of peanut butter vanished at that point...

Is it really a "work" day if it's Halloween?

October 15, 2005

Drop and Give Me Fifty!

We went to the NC State Fair today: now nationally known for Deep-Fried Everything thanks to boingboing.

While we were there the National Guard was recruiting heavily. If you are between 17 and 39 and can give them fifty push-ups they will give you a very nice basketball. Well, we'd been wanting a basketball, so forty seconds later I'd earned us one.

I usually do very deep, very slow push-ups, so fifty regular ones was a piece of cake. It was great fun seeing the high school/college guys after me collapse halfway through! I think I've had my macho moment for the year. :-)

If they can read my handwriting the recruiters will be sending me stuff pretty soon, but you know how shaky your hand can be after all that exertion, right? Good thing they don't know that I'm also a computer geek: they might still be recruiting me when I'm 50.

Meanwhile, maybe my competition should lay off the deep-fried candy bars...

2D

Is it art?
Is a toy?
2d.jpg
It seems suitable that my recent acquisition should be ambiguous since it is a 13" vinyl figure of a bandmember of Gorillaz, a virtual band. It was designed by an artist in Mexico and produced as a limited run in Hong Kong. Gorillaz "lives" in their England studio.

In any case, he now keeps me company while I play my Strat.

October 05, 2005

THIS is Conservative???

Q Mr. President, you presided over the largest increase in the size, the power and the cost of the federal government since Lyndon Baines Johnson. A lot of your supporters are wondering what's so conservative about that? And can you answer them, and tell the American people, given the budget deficit, the cost of the war, the cost of Katrina, specifically -- by naming a specific program or revenue measure -- how you're going to pay for all this?

THE PRESIDENT: First, let me remind people that we are at war. And I have pledged to the American people -- and, more importantly, the troops and their families -- we'll make sure they have what it takes to succeed.

What the heck did Bush's answer have to do with the question? Conservative? No, that's NEOconservative. I respect Conservatives even when I disagree with them, but these neocons... bread and circuses for the masses. We'll be paying this off for generations to come.

Liberals and Conservatives Agree

This is a stupid, anti-American idea. No president should ever suggest turning the American military on the citizens of his own nation.

October 04, 2005

If Fox News covered the American Revolution

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Courtesy of http://intellectualize.org/

October 03, 2005

Quote of the Day #6

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Antonio Gramsci

Part of the Problem/Part of the Solution

I think we may be in for some tough economic times ahead. I'm not preaching End of the World (we still need to keep our heads in the sand a little bit longer for that), but another recession. I don't think we can avoid it, but we can learn from our mistakes.

Over the past few years Americans have fueled a remarkable degree of growth in the American economy thanks to growing consumer spending -- in spite of the fact that the median household income in the U.S. has been flat (at $44,000/yr) since 1999 (src: NY Times, 9/24/2005). How does that magic happen? Cheap credit! Lured by low credit costs we have been renovating our homes, buying new cars, taking fancy trips, and snagging consumer goods such as computers, plasma TV's, and the latest fashions at record rates. Booming home prices have allowed many Americans access to even more credit via home equity lines. It's been one giant free money party -- and one that has driven the American economy well for several years.

Unfortunately, inflation was already a concern, but the rising costs of energy are accelerating the cost of living dramatically for everyone. With inflation comes higher interest rates: the hangover after the party. Americans are starting to face higher costs at the same time they are watching the interest rates on their debts rise. It's a deadly one-two punch for consumer spending (which makes up the bulk of our economy).

In many cases we can make choices such that inflation in any one product doesn't have to crimp overall spending. Coffee too expensive? Switch to cola. Unexpected jump in clothing costs? Spend your money on a new TV instead.

Energy, though, that's another beast. Unless you made a decision to live where you have an alternative, you have to make your 5-times-a-week commute to work and home. You can't suddenly choose not to do it. If it is costing you an extra $100/month at the gas pump you can continue your current lifestyle if (a) you cut your savings rate or (b) you deficit spend.

Oops: we already (as a nation) have a non-existent savings rate! Maybe deficit spending? Oops! Already done that as well.

Now we add insult to injury: inflation in energy trickles over to inflation everywhere else. All the stuff we buy takes energy to make and energy to ship. Worst of all, though, inflation drives up interest rates. That debt is suddenly getting a lot more expensive.

So, as a nation we are tapped out. We have no savings and lots of debt that's getting more and more expensive to hold. The government is tapped out as well, so don't expect relief there. So now what do you do?

You slow down. Skip the vacation. No shopping for flat screen TV's. No designer shoes. Eat in more. Start living within your means. You get worried, so you start *finally* paying down debt.

What happens if everyone does this? In the long run, we'll be in much better financial shape. We'll have rainy-day funds. We'll be able to pay cash rather than use credit.

In the shorter term, though, if the American consumer cuts back in order to put their fiscal houses in order, the economy is going to tank.

I believe that the economy has had such consistently amazing growth over the decades because Americans are such stubbornly optimistic people. We'll spend today if the credit is cheap because we can pay it off with next year's raise. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because spending leads to economic growth, except that this time the growth never trickled down to the middle class (where the bulk of spending occurs).

I don't see a way to dodge this one. I think we're going to have to take it on the chin. We'll be better off for it eventually, but it's going to hurt in the meantime: a "character-building" experience.

As for me, I'm getting my fiscal hosue in order. My spending is way down. I bike to work now that gas costs so much. I run fewer errands and therefore spend less on impulse purchases. My family is better off for it day by day. Of course, that means I'm contributing less to the economy which means a little less economic growth for everyone.

I guess I'm part of the problem, and part of the solution.