No nation-state can beat the United States military in a head to head struggle (guerilla insurgencies are another matter). Considering the fact that the United States military consumes almost half of all military expenditures GLOBALLY, this should be no surprise at all. This is a military that would have to be pitted against the entire forces of the rest of the planet to be a real contest. In the long term this ridiculously high spending level will sap our nation's strength in other ways, but that is a subject for another article.
Since every nation is well-aware of the overwhelming superiority of U.S. forces, no nation is preparing to actually engage in a head-to-head struggle with the U.S. military. However, several nations are working to gain leverage that would give them power in regards to the United States without ever having to engage the U.S. militarily.
In order to gain influence in the face of U.S. military superiority, a nation must first be able to neutralize the threat of the U.S. military without having the force to defeat it. The best tool available to foreign powers in this regard is the acquisition of nuclear arms. While nuclear weapons will not overcome American military capabilities they do threaten to cause unacceptable levels of loss to the populations of either the United States or its allies. This threat generally removes military force as an option available to the U.S., and therefore effectively neutralizes the military superiority of the United States.
Several countries now possess a nuclear deterrent or are working to acquire one. Weaker nations such as Iran and North Korea seek to use nuclear weapons as a shield against the threat of U.S. force. The race to acquire such weapons has accelerated in light of the U.S. invasion of Iraq which demonstrated the willingness of the current U.S. government to use the U.S. military preemptively in line with with the strategic interests of the United States.
The most interesting case, however, is China. China possesses a substantial nuclear capability as well as delivery systems capable of striking U.S allies (most notably Japan) in Asia. Within the next few years (if not already), China will have delivery systems capable of striking mainland American population centers. With those missiles, the Chinese government will have completely neutralized the ability of the United States to threaten China militarily.
Through the use of a strong nuclear capability, China can provide for its defense against any military action by the U.S. while keeping costs low enough to invest resources in expanding its powers in other ways. There are two ways in particular that China is likely to pursue this.
First, China will invest heavily in its own economic development. We are likely to see strategies that protect China's nascent industries from international competition. The gains from exports will be plowed back into Chinese development to continue the cycle. As part of this strategy, China will continue to protect the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Chinese renmini.
Perhaps even more important to China in the long term is the second part of the strategy: the purchase of large quantities of U.S. Treasuries. These purchases help maintain the current exchange rates that are so favorable to Chinese exporters, but also provide huge long-term political leverage over the United States. Once China's economy becomes large enough (sometime during the next 10 years), China will have the luxury of manipulating the value of the U.S. dollar in the global currency marketplace by selling or threatening to dump U.S. Treasuries. This situation will give China the potential to exert more control over U.S. interest rates than the Federal Reserve currently enjoys.
The United States could avoid this empowerment of the Chinese government over the U.S. economy through a program of fiscal discipline. Unfortunately, it is very difficult for an increasingly militarized America to meet the burden of financing the world's most expensive armed forces while meeting its domestic needs without either crushing levels of taxation or an ever-deepening addiction to foreign investment.
Americans must come to terms with the reality of our position in the world. Militarism is devouring our resources at an alarming rate, leaving us weakened in every arena except that of military conflict. In the face of nuclear proliferation, the ability of the U.S. to use its military as political leverage is rapidly diminishing. Soon it will only be of use against the least developed nations of the world. Against more developed nations, not only will the U.S. military be of no use, but the funding of our tremendous military threatens to place us at the economic mercy of those same powers.
I believe that if the U.S. does not dramatically scale back our dependence on military power we will create a situation in which we cannot fund investment in our own country while at the same time we will be saddled with a military possessing far too much power and too little utility. In the long term this situation will threaten our significance upon the world stage and our democratic traditions. Now, before our influence wanes too far, is the time to embrace and foster strong international institutions that may someday help to preserve our rights in a world in which the United States is no longer a superpower.